Gail Model Risk Assessment Program

The risk of developing an invasive breast cancer over the next five years and your lifetime probability of developing breast cancer can be calculated using  a program called the Gail Model which has been validated in several studies. The Gail model takes into account five factors including your current age, age when you started menstruating (menarche), previous breast biopsies- -also taking into account if any of those biopsies demonstrated atypical growth, age at first live birth, family history of breast cancer in first-degree relatives. One of the disadvantages of this model is that it doesn't take into account age at which a family member was diagnosed and whether the disease occurred in both breasts -- early onset and bilateral disease suggests a BRCA mutation carrier.

If the Gail model predicts a 5-year risk of 1.66% or greater, you should consider discussing the STAR trial (if you are post-menopausal,) or possibly tamoxifen with your doctor. This entails a balanced discussion of the risks and benefits of these interventions- keeping in mind that nothing is without risk !! The Gail model doesn't apply to women with LCIS (lobular ca-in-situ), DCIS or if you have had a previous breast cancer. Remember the Gail Model assesses the probability of developing breast cancer, not dying from it !

Copyright © Deborah Axelrod, M.D. All Rights Reserved. Legal Disclaimer
Site Design by Fusion Digital, Inc., Revised: Mar 03, 2000